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Abstract:

We present cosmological constraints from eight strongly lensed quasars (hereafter, the TDCOSMO-2025 sample). Building on previous work, our analysis incorporated new deflector stellar velocity dispersions measured from spectra obtained with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), the Keck Telescopes, and the Very Large Telescope (VLT), utilizing improved methods. We used integrated JWST stellar kinematics for five lenses, VLT-MUSE for 2, and resolved kinematics from Keck and JWST for RX J1131−1231. We also considered two samples of non-time-delay lenses: 11 from the Sloan Lens ACS (SLACS) sample with Keck-KCWI resolved kinematics; and four from the Strong Lenses in the Legacy Survey (SL2S) sample. We improved our analysis of line-of-sight effects, the surface brightness profile of the lens galaxies, and orbital anisotropy, and corrected for projection effects in the dynamics. Our uncertainties are maximally conservative by accounting for the mass-sheet degeneracy in the deflectors’ mass density profiles. The analysis was blinded to prevent experimenter bias. Our primary result is based on the TDCOSMO-2025 sample, in combination with Ω m constraints from the Pantheon+ Type Ia supernovae (SN) dataset. In the flat Λ cold dark matter (CDM), we find H 0 = 71.6 +3.9 −3.3 km s −1 Mpc −1 . The SLACS and SL2S samples are in excellent agreement with the TDCOSMO-2025 sample, improving the precision on H 0 in flat ΛCDM to 4.6%. Using the Dark Energy Survey SN Year-5 dataset (DES-SN5YR) or DESI-DR2 baryonic acoustic oscillations (BAO) likelihoods instead of Pantheon+ yields very similar results. We also present constraints in the open ΛCDM, w CDM, w 0 w a CDM, and w ϕ CDM cosmologies. The TDCOSMO H 0 inference is robust and consistent across all presented cosmological models, and our cosmological constraints in them agree with those from the BAO and SN.

Abstract:

Constraining the mass-sheet degeneracy (MSD) is crucial for improving the precision and accuracy of time-delay cosmography. Joint analyses based on lensing and stellar kinematics have been widely adopted to break the MSD. A three-dimensional (3D) mass and stellar tracer population is required to accurately interpret the kinematics data. Our forward-modeling procedure is aimed at evaluating the projection effects using strong lensing and kinematics observables and to determine an optimal model assumption for the stellar kinematics analysis leading to an unbiased interpretation of the MSD and H_0. We numerically simulated the projection and selection effects for both a triaxial early-type galaxy (ETG) sample from the TNG100 simulation and an axisymmetric sample that matches the properties of slow-rotator galaxies representative of the strong lens galaxy population. Using the axisymmetric sample, we generated mock kinematics observables with spherically aligned axisymmetric Jeans anisotropic modeling (JAM) and assessed the kinematic recovery under different model assumptions. Using the triaxial sample, we quantified the random uncertainty introduced by modeling triaxial galaxies with axisymmetric JAM. We show that spherical JAM analysis of spatially unresolved kinematic data introduces a bias of up to 2%-4% (depending on the intrinsic shape of the lens) in the inferred MSD. Our model largely corrects this bias, resulting in a residual random uncertainty in the range of 0-2.2% in the stellar velocity dispersion (0-4.4% in H_0), depending on the projected ellipticity and the anisotropy of the stellar orbits. This residual uncertainty can be further mitigated by the use of spatially resolved kinematic data, which constrain the intrinsic axis ratio. We also show that the random uncertainty in the kinematics recovery using axisymmetric JAM for axisymmetric galaxies is at the level of 0.24% in the velocity dispersion, and the uncertainty using axisymmetric JAM for triaxial galaxies is at the level of 0.17% in the velocity dispersion.

Abstract:

We reanalyzed spectra that were taken as part of the SL2S lens galaxy survey with the goal to obtain the stellar velocity dispersion with a precision and accuracy sufficient for time-delay cosmography. In order to achieve this goal, we imposed stringent cuts on the signal-to-noise ratio (S/N), and employed recently developed methods to mitigate and quantify residual systematic errors that are transferred from template libraries and fitting process. We also quantified the covariance across the sample. For galaxy spectra with S/N $>20/$Ã…, our new measurements have an average random uncertainty of 3-4%, an average systematic uncertainty of 2%, and a covariance across the sample of 1%. We find a negligible covariance between spectra taken with different instruments. The systematic uncertainty and covariance need to be included when the sample is used as an external dataset in time-delay cosmography. We revisited empirical scaling relations of lens galaxies based on the improved kinematics. We show that the SL2S sample, the TDCOSMO time-delay lens sample, and the lower-redshift SLACS sample follow the same correlation of the effective radius, stellar velocity dispersion, and lensing mass, known as the lensing-mass fundamental plane, as the previously derived correlation that assumed isothermal mass profiles for the deflectors. We also derived for the first time the lensing-mass fundamental plane assuming free power-law mass density profiles, and we show that the three samples also follow the same correlation. This is consistent with a scenario in which massive galaxies evolve by growing their radii and mass, but stay within the plane.

Abstract:

The stellar velocity dispersion ( σ ) of massive elliptical galaxies is a key ingredient in breaking the mass-sheet degeneracy and obtaining precise and accurate cosmography from gravitational time delays. The relative uncertainty on the Hubble constant H 0 is double the relative error on σ . Therefore, time-delay cosmography imposes much more demanding requirements on the precision and accuracy of σ than galaxy studies. While precision can be achieved with an adequate signal-to-noise ratio (S/N), the accuracy critically depends on key factors such as the elemental abundance and temperature of stellar templates, flux calibration, and wavelength ranges. We carried out a detailed study of the problem using multiple sets of galaxy spectra of massive elliptical galaxies with S/N ∼ 30–160 Å −1 , along with state-of-the-art empirical and semi-empirical stellar libraries and stellar population synthesis templates. We show that the choice of stellar library is generally the dominant source of residual systematic errors. We propose a general recipe for mitigating and accounting for residual uncertainties. We show that a sub-percent level of accuracy can be achieved on individual spectra with our data quality, which we subsequently validated with simulated mock datasets. The covariance between velocity dispersions measured for a sample of spectra can also be reduced to sub-percent levels. We recommend this recipe for all applications that require high precision and accurate stellar kinematics. Thus, we have made all the software publicly available to facilitate its implementation. This recipe will also be used in future TDCOSMO collaboration papers.