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By linking genetic sequences to phenotypic traits, genotype–phenotype maps represent a key layer in biological organization. Their structure modulates the effects of genetic mutations which can contribute to shaping evolutionary outcomes. Recent work based on algorithmic information theory introduced an upper bound on the likelihood of a random genetic mutation causing a transition between two phenotypes, using only the conditional complexity between them. Here we evaluate how well this bound works for a range of genotype–phenotype maps, including a differential equation model for circadian rhythm, a matrix-multiplication model of gene regulatory networks, a developmental model of tooth morphologies for ringed seals, a polyomino-tile shape model of biological self-assembly, and the hydrophobic/polar (HP) lattice protein model. By assessing three levels of predictive performance, we find that the bound provides meaningful estimates of phenotype transition probabilities across these complex systems. These results suggest that transition probabilities can be predicted to some degree directly from the phenotypes themselves, without needing detailed knowledge of the underlying genotype–phenotype map.

Monolayer FeSe on SrTiO3 superconducts with reported Tc as high as 100 K, but the dramatic interfacial Tc enhancement remains poorly understood. Oxygen vacancies in SrTiO3 are known to enhance the interfacial electron doping, electron-phonon coupling, and superconducting gap, but the detailed mechanism is unclear. Here we apply scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) and electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS) to FeSe/SrTiO3 to image the diffusion of selenium into SrTiO3 to an unexpected depth of several unit cells, consistent with the simultaneously observed depth profile of oxygen vacancies. Our density functional theory (DFT) calculations 91̽»¨ the crucial role of oxygen vacancies in facilitating the thermally driven Se diffusion. In contrast to excess Se in the FeSe monolayer or FeSe/SrTiO3 interface that is typically removed during post-growth annealing, the diffused Se remains in the top few unit cells of the SrTiO3 bulk after the extended post-growth annealing that is necessary to achieve superconductivity. Thus, the unexpected Se in SrTiO3 may contribute to the interfacial electron doping and electron-phonon coupling that enhance Tc, suggesting another important role for oxygen vacancies as facilitators of Se diffusion.