THE SENSITIVITY OF THE ECMWF MODEL TO THE PARAMETERIZATION OF EVAPORATION FROM THE TROPICAL OCEANS
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 5:5 (1992) 418-434
A real-time scheme for the prediction of forecast skill
Monthly Weather Review 119:4 (1991) 1088-1097
Abstract:
During the winter of 1988/89, a real-time experimental scheme to predict skill of the ECMWF operational forecast was devised. The scheme was based on statistical relations between skill scores (the predictands) and a number of predictors including consistency between consecutive forecasts, amplitude of very short-range forecast errors, and indices of large-scale regime transitions. The results of the experiment are assessed with particular attention to a period with large variations in the skill of the operational forecast. -AuthorsExtended-range predictions with ECMWF models: Time-lagged ensemble forecasting
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Wiley 116:494 (1990) 867-912
Extended-range predictions with ECMWF models: Interannual variability in operational model integrations
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Wiley 116:494 (1990) 799-834
THE MONTE CARLO FORECAST
Weather Wiley 45:6 (1990) 198-207