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Abstract:

Claims of detections of gases in exoplanet atmospheres often rely on comparisons between models including and excluding specific chemical species. However, the space of molecular combinations available for model construction is vast and highly degenerate. Only a limited subset of these combinations is typically explored for any given detection. As a result, apparent detections of trace gases risk being artefacts of incomplete modelling rather than robust identification of atmospheric constituents, especially in the low-signal-to-noise regime. Here, using the sub-Neptune K2-18 b as a case study, we show that recent biosignature claims vanish when the model space is expanded, with numerous alternatives providing equally good or better fits. We demonstrate that the significance of a claimed detection relies on the choice of models being compared, and that model preference does not in itself imply the presence of a specific gas. We recommend treating model comparisons instead as relative adequacy tests, which should be 91̽»¨ed by theoretical predictions and complementary metrics of statistical significance to attribute a signal to a particular gas.

Abstract:

The Hubble Space Telescope has been a pioneering instrument for studying the atmospheres of exoplanets, specifically its WFC3 and STIS instruments. With the launch of JWST, we are able to observe larger spectral ranges at higher precision. NIRISS/SOSS covers the range 0.6–2.8 microns, and thus, it can serve as a direct comparison to WFC3 (0.8–1.7 microns). We perform atmospheric retrievals of WFC3 and NIRISS transmission spectra of WASP-39 b in order to compare their constraining power. We find that NIRISS is able to retrieve precise H₂O abundances that do not suffer a degeneracy with the continuum level due to the coverage of multiple spectral features. We also combine these data sets with spectra from STIS and find that challenges associated with fitting the steep optical slope can bias the retrieval results. In an effort to diagnose the differences between the WFC3 and NIRISS retrievals, we perform the analysis again on the NIRISS data cut to the same wavelength range as WFC3. We find that the water abundance is in strong disagreement with both the WFC3 and full NIRISS retrievals, highlighting the importance of wide wavelength coverage. Finally, we carry out mock retrievals on the different instruments, which shows further evidence of the challenges in constraining water abundance from the WFC3 data alone. Our study demonstrates the vast information gain of JWST’s NIRISS instrument over WFC3, highlighting the insights to be obtained from our new era of space-based instruments.