Dr Antje Weisheimer (she): Publications

Decadal variability of the East Asian summer jet and its relationship to sea surface temperatures

Copernicus Publications (2021)

Authors:

Matthew Patterson, Tim Woollings, Chris O'Reilly, Antje Weisheimer

Forecast skill of autumn snow for European winter climate during the 20th century: A multi member seasonal prediction experiment

Copernicus Publications (2021)

Authors:

Martin Wegmann, Yvan Orsolini, Antje Weisheimer, Bart van den Hurk, Gerrit Lohmann

How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation?

Copernicus Publications (2021)

Authors:

Antje Weisheimer, Damien Decremer, David MacLeod, Chris O'Reilly, Tim Stockdale, Stephanie Johnson, Tim Palmer

Non-Stationarity of Wintertime Atmospheric Circulation Regimes in the Euro-Atlantic Sector

Copernicus Publications (2021)

Authors:

Swinda Falkena, Jana de Wiljes, Antje Weisheimer, Ted Shepherd

Forecast skill of the Indian monsoon and its onset in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 5 (SEAS5)

Climate Dynamics Springer 56 (2021) 2941-2957

Authors:

A Chevuturi, Ag Turner, S Johnson, A Weisheimer, J Shonk, Tn Stockdale, R Senan

Abstract:

Accurate forecasting of variations in Indian monsoon precipitation and progression on seasonal time scales remains a challenge for prediction centres. We examine prediction skill for the seasonal-mean Indian summer monsoon and its onset in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal forecasting system 5 (SEAS5). We analyse summer hindcasts initialised on 1st of May, with 51 ensemble members, for the 36-year period of 1981–2016. We evaluate the hindcasts against the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) precipitation observations and the ECMWF reanalysis 5 (ERA5). The model has significant skill at forecasting dynamical features of the large-scale monsoon and local-scale monsoon onset tercile category one month in advance. SEAS5 shows higher skill for monsoon features calculated using large-scale indices compared to those at smaller scales. Our results also highlight possible model deficiencies in forecasting the all India monsoon rainfall.

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