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Abstract:

Dengue fever is a source of substantial health burden in Vietnam. Given the well‐established influence of temperature and precipitation on vector biology and disease transmission, predictions of meteorological variables, such as those issued by ECMWF as a world‐leading provider of global ensemble forecasts, are likely to be valuable model inputs to a future dengue early warning system. In the absence of established verification at municipal and regional scales, this study assesses the skill of rainy season (May–October) ensemble precipitation and 2‐m temperature retrospective forecasts over North and South Vietnam initialized for dates during the period 2001–2020, evaluated against the ERA5 reanalysis for the same period. Forecasts are found to be significantly skilful compared with both climatology and persistence for lead times up to 10 days, including for cumulative precipitation values considered against independent rain gauge data. Rank histograms demonstrate that ensembles generally avoid excessive bias and consistently positive CRPSS values indicate substantial skill for temperature and cumulative precipitation forecasts for all spatial scales considered, despite differences in rainy season characteristics between North and South Vietnam. This forecast reliability demonstrates that meteorological input data based on ECMWF ensemble forecasts would add appreciably more value to the development of a future dengue early warning system compared to reference forecasts like climatology or persistence. These results raise hope for further exploration of predictive skill for relevant meteorological variables, particularly focused on their downscaling to produce district‐level epidemiological forecasts for urban areas where dengue is most prevalent.

Abstract:

The wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic Pattern (EA) are the two leading modes of North Atlantic pressure variability and have a substantial impact on winter weather in Europe. The year‐to‐year contributions to multi‐model seasonal forecast skill in the Copernicus C3S ensemble of seven prediction systems are assessed for the wintertime NAO and EA, and well‐forecast and poorly‐forecast years are identified. Years with high NAO predictability are associated with substantial tropical forcing, generally from the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), while poor forecasts of the NAO occur when ENSO forcing is weak. Well‐forecast EA winters also generally occurred when there was substantial tropical forcing, although the relationship was less robust than for the NAO. These results 91̽�� previous findings of the impacts of tropical forcing on the North Atlantic and show this is important from a multi‐model seasonal forecasting perspective.

Abstract:

Seasonal hindcasts have previously been demonstrated to show multi-decadal variability in skill across the twentieth century in indices describing El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which drives global seasonal predictability. Here, we analyze the skill of predicting ENSO events' magnitude and spatial pattern, in the CSF-20C coupled seasonal hindcasts in 1901–2010. We find minima in the skill of predicting the first (in 1930–1950) and second (in 1940–1960) principal components of sea-surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific. This minimum is also present in the spatial correlation of SSTs, in 1930–1960. The skill reduction is explained by lower ENSO magnitude and variance in 1930–1960, as well as decreased SST persistence. The SST skill minima project onto surface winds, leading to worse predictions in coupled hindcasts compared to hindcasts using prescribed SSTs. Questions remain about the offset between the first and second principal components' skill minima, and how the skill minima impact the extra-tropics.

Abstract:

Seasonal hindcasts have previously been demonstrated to show multi‐decadal variability in skill across the twentieth century in indices describing El‐Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which drives global seasonal predictability. Here, we analyze the skill of predicting ENSO events' magnitude and spatial pattern, in the CSF‐20C coupled seasonal hindcasts in 1901–2010. We find minima in the skill of predicting the first (in 1930–1950) and second (in 1940–1960) principal components of sea‐surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific. This minimum is also present in the spatial correlation of SSTs, in 1930–1960. The skill reduction is explained by lower ENSO magnitude and variance in 1930–1960, as well as decreased SST persistence. The SST skill minima project onto surface winds, leading to worse predictions in coupled hindcasts compared to hindcasts using prescribed SSTs. Questions remain about the offset between the first and second principal components' skill minima, and how the skill minima impact the extra‐tropics.

Abstract:

The 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave was so extreme as to challenge conventional statistical and climate-model-based approaches to extreme weather attribution. However, state-of-the-art operational weather prediction systems are demonstrably able to simulate the detailed physics of the heatwave. Here, we leverage these systems to show that human influence on the climate made this event at least 8 [2–50] times more likely. At the current rate of global warming, the likelihood of such an event is doubling every 20 [10–50] years. Given the multi-decade lower-bound return-time implied by the length of the historical record, this rate of change in likelihood is highly relevant for decision makers. Further, forecast-based attribution can synthesise the conditional event-specific storyline and unconditional event-class probabilistic approaches to attribution. If developed as a routine service in forecasting centres, it could provide reliable estimates of human influence on extreme weather risk, which is critical to 91̽��ing effective adaptation planning.