91̽»¨

Abstract:

Recent research has suggested that relatively cold UK winters are more common when solar activity is low (Lockwood et al 2010 Environ.Res.Lett. 5 024001). Solar activity during the current sunspot minimum has fallen to levels unknown since the start of the 20th century (Lockwood 2010 Proc. R. Soc. A 466 303-29) and records of past solar variations inferred from cosmogenic isotopes (Abreu et al 2008 Geophys.Res.Lett. 35 L20109) and geomagnetic activity data (Lockwood et al 2009 Astrophys. J. 700 937-44) suggest that the current grand solar maximum is coming to an end and hence that solar activity can be expected to continue to decline. Combining cosmogenic isotope data with the long record of temperatures measured in central England, we estimate how solar change could influence the probability in the future of further UK winters that are cold, relative to the hemispheric mean temperature, if all other factors remain constant. Global warming is taken into account only through the detrending using mean hemispheric temperatures. We show that some predictive skill may be obtained by including the solar effect. © 2011 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Abstract:

Models often underestimate blocking in the Atlantic and Pacific basins and this can lead to errors in both weather and climate predictions. Horizontal resolution is often cited as the main culprit for blocking errors due to poorly resolved small-scale variability, the upscale effects of which help to maintain blocks. Although these processes are important for blocking, the authors show that much of the blocking error diagnosed using common methods of analysis and current climate models is directly attributable to the climatological bias of the model. This explains a large proportion of diagnosed blocking error in models used in the recent Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change report. Furthermore, greatly improved statistics are obtained by diagnosing blocking using climate model data corrected to account for mean model biases. To the extent that mean biases may be corrected in low-resolution models, this suggests that such models may be able to generate greatly improved levels of atmospheric blocking. © 2010 American Meteorological Society.

Abstract:

Tim Woollings discusses the reasons behind the natural events such as the cold European winter of 2009-10, heatwave in Russia, and devastating floods in Pakistan. The jet streams are literally jets of fast-moving air that are strongest about 10km up in the atmosphere - around the level where airliners fly. Jet streams vary in strength from week to week. One of the most common variations in the North Atlantic jet stream is for the whole jet to shift to the north or the south. While the North Atlantic jet stream generally points roughly due east, straight across the Atlantic, it often meanders north and south. When waves on the ocean surface become too large they overturn and break, resulting in very turbulent motion. When Rossby waves break, the resulting weather situation is known as blocking.

Abstract:

We demonstrate that open solar flux (Fs, derivable from geomagnetic data) exhibits stronger correlations with atmospheric circulation variations than conventionally-used measures of solar activity. The circulation anomalies are particularly enhanced over the North Atlantic/Eurasian sector, where there are large changes in the occurrence of blocking and the winter mean surface temperature differs by several degrees between high- and low-solar terciles. The relationship is stronger and simpler for Fs, being more linear between high- and low-solar winters. While the circulation anomalies strongly resemble the North Atlantic Oscillation they also extend deeper into Eurasia, especially in high-solar conditions. This distinct signature may be useful for the detection and attribution of observed changes and also the identification of dynamical mechanisms. © 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.

Abstract:

Climate science is coming under increasing pressure to deliver projections of future climate change at spatial scales as small as a few kilometres for use in impacts studies. But is our understanding and modelling of the climate system advanced enough to offer such predictions? Here we focus on the Atlantic-European sector, and on the effects of greenhouse gas forcing on the atmospheric and, to a lesser extent, oceanic circulations. We review the dynamical processes which shape European climate and then consider how each of these leads to uncertainty in the future climate. European climate is unique in many regards, and as such it poses a unique challenge for climate prediction. Future European climate must be considered particularly uncertain because (i) the spread between the predictions of current climate models is still considerable and (ii) Europe is particularly strongly affected by several processes which are known to be poorly represented in current models.