Sensitivity Analysis for Climate Science with Generative Flow Models

(2025)

Authors:

Alex Dobra, Jakiw Pidstrigach, Tim Reichelt, Paolo Fraccaro, Anne Jones, Johannes Jakubik, Christian Schroeder de Witt, Philip Torr, Philip Stier

Sensitivity analysis for climate science with generative flow models

NeurIPS (2025)

Authors:

Alex Dobra, Jakiw Pidstrigach, Tim Reichelt, Paolo Fraccaro, Johannes Jakubik, Anne Jones, Chris Schroeder de Witt, Philip Torr, Philip Stier

Abstract:

Sensitivity analysis is a cornerstone of climate science, essential for understanding phenomena ranging from storm intensity to long-term climate feedbacks. However, computing these sensitivities using traditional physical models is often prohibitively expensive in terms of both computation and development time. While modern AI-based generative models are orders of magnitude faster to evaluate, computing sensitivities with them remains a significant bottleneck. This work addresses this challenge by applying the adjoint state method for calculating gradients in generative flow models. We apply this method to the cBottle generative model, trained on ERA5 and ICON data, to perform sensitivity analysis of any atmospheric variable with respect to sea surface temperatures. We quantitatively validate the computed sensitivities against the model鈥檚 own outputs. Our results provide initial evidence that this approach can produce reliable gradients, reducing the computational cost of sensitivity analysis from weeks on a supercomputer with a physical model to hours on a GPU, thereby simplifying a critical workflow in climate science. The code can be found at https://github.com/Kwartzl8/ cbottle_adjoint_sensitivity.

RCEMIP鈥怉CI: Aerosol鈥怌loud Interactions in a Multimodel Ensemble of Radiative鈥怌onvective Equilibrium Simulations

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems Wiley 17:11 (2025) e2025MS005141

Authors:

Guy Dagan, Susan C van den Heever, Philip Stier, Tristan H Abbott, Christian Barthlott, Jean鈥怭ierre Chaboureau, Jiwen Fan, Stephan de Roode, Bla啪 Gasparini, Corinna Hoose, Fredrik Jansson, Gayatri Kulkarni, Gabrielle R Leung, Suf Lorian, Thara Prabhakaran, David M Romps, Denis Shum, Mirjam Tijhuis, Chiel C van Heerwaarden, Allison A Wing, Yunpeng Shan

Abstract:

Plain Language Summary: Aerosols, small particles suspended in the atmosphere, influence cloud properties by acting as nuclei for cloud droplet formation. These aerosol鈥恈loud interactions (ACI) introduce uncertainties in climate research, making it essential to improve our understanding of them. This paper presents findings from a model intercomparison project that examines the impact of aerosols on clouds and climate in simulations that directly represent cloud processes under idealized equilibrium climate conditions. We show that cloud responses to aerosols vary substantially across models, though certain consistent responses emerge. Specifically, increased aerosol loading generally suppresses initial rain formation, which in turn alters the thermodynamic conditions of the atmosphere. We also discuss how these thermodynamic changes influence the large鈥恠cale atmospheric circulation.

Global 3D Reconstruction of Clouds & Tropical Cyclones

(2025)

Authors:

Shirin Ermis, Cesar Aybar, Lilli Freischem, Stella Girtsou, Kyriaki-Margarita Bintsi, Emiliano Diaz Salas-Porras, Michael Eisinger, William Jones, Anna Jungbluth, Benoit Tremblay

Image calibration between the Extreme Ultraviolet Imagers on Solar Orbiter and the Solar Dynamics Observatory

Astronomy and Astrophysics 703 (2025)

Authors:

C Schirninger, R Jarolim, AM Veronig, A Jungbluth, L Freischem, JE Johnson, V Delouille, L Dolla, A Spalding

Abstract:

To study and monitor the Sun and its atmosphere, various space missions have been launched in the past decades. With rapid improvement in technology and different mission requirements, the data products are subject to constant change. However, for such long-term studies as solar variability or multi-instrument investigations, uniform data series are required. In this study, we built on and expanded the instrument-to-instrument translation (ITI) framework, which provides unpaired image translations. We applied the tool to data from the Extreme Ultraviolet Imager (EUI), specifically the Full Sun Imager (FSI) on Solar Orbiter and the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). This approach allowed us to create a homogeneous dataset that combines the two extreme ultraviolet (EUV) imagers in the 174/171 脜 and 304 脜 channels. We demonstrate that ITI is able to provide image calibration between Solar Orbiter and SDO EUV imagers, independent of the varying orbital position of Solar Orbiter. The comparison of the intercalibrated light curves derived from 174/171 脜 and 304 脜 filtergrams from EUI and AIA shows that ITI can provide uniform data series that outperform a standard baseline calibration. We evaluate the perceptual similarity in terms of the Fr茅chet inception distance, which demonstrates that ITI achieves a significant improvement of perceptual similarity between EUI and AIA. The study provides intercalibrated observations from Solar Orbiter/EUI/FSI with SDO/AIA, enabling a homogeneous dataset suitable for solar cycle studies and multi-viewpoint investigations.