Expectation Programming: Adapting Probabilistic Programming Systems to Estimate Expectations Efficiently

Proceedings of the 38th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, UAI 2022 (2022) 1676-1685

Authors:

T Reichelt, A Goli艅ski, L Ong, T Rainforth

Abstract:

We show that the standard computational pipeline of probabilistic programming systems (PPSs) can be inefficient for estimating expectations and introduce the concept of expectation programming to address this. In expectation programming, the aim of the backend inference engine is to directly estimate expected return values of programs, as opposed to approximating their conditional distributions. This distinction, while subtle, allows us to achieve substantial performance improvements over the standard PPS computational pipeline by tailoring computation to the expectation we care about. We realize a particular instance of our expectation programming concept, Expectation Programming in Turing (EPT), by extending the PPS Turing to allow so-called target-aware inference to be run automatically. We then verify the statistical soundness of EPT theoretically, and show that it provides substantial empirical gains in practice.

Past and future coastal flooding in Pacific Small-Island Nations: insights from the Pacific Sea Level and Geodetic Monitoring (PSLGM) Project tide gauges

Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science CSIRO Publishing 72:3 (2022) 202-217

Authors:

Mathilde Ritman, Ben Hague, Tauala Katea, Tavau Vaaia, Arona Ngari, Grant Smith, David Jones, L茅na Tolu

Rethinking Variational Inference for Probabilistic Programs with Stochastic Support

Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 35 (2022)

Authors:

T Reichelt, L Ong, T Rainforth

Abstract:

We introduce Support Decomposition Variational Inference (SDVI), a new variational inference (VI) approach for probabilistic programs with stochastic 91探花. Existing approaches to this problem rely on designing a single global variational guide on a variable-by-variable basis, while maintaining the stochastic control flow of the original program. SDVI instead breaks the program down into sub-programs with static 91探花, before automatically building separate sub-guides for each. This decomposition significantly aids in the construction of suitable variational families, enabling, in turn, substantial improvements in inference performance.

Scalable Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses for Causal-Effect Estimates of Continuous-Valued Interventions

Curran Associates (2022) 13892-13907

Authors:

Alyson Douglas, Yarin Gal, Andrew Jesson, Peter Manshausen, Nicolai Meinshausen, Uri Shalit, Ma毛lys Solal, Philip Stier

Prediction of gene essentiality using machine learning and genome-scale metabolic models

IFAC-PapersOnLine 55:23 (2022)

Authors:

Lilli J Freischem, Mauricio Barahona, Diego A Oyarz煤n

Abstract:

The identification of essential genes, i.e. those that impair cell survival when deleted, requires large growth assays of knock-out strains. The complexity and cost of such experiments has triggered a growing interest in computational methods for prediction of gene essentiality. In the case of metabolic genes, Flux Balance Analysis (FBA) is widely employed to predict essentiality under the assumption that cells maximize their growth rate. However, this approach assumes that knock-out strains optimize the same objectives as the wild-type, which excludes cases in which deletions cause large physiological changes to meet other objectives for survival. Here, we resolve this limitation with a novel machine learning approach that predicts essentiality directly from wild-type flux distributions. We first project the wild-type FBA solution onto a mass flow graph, a digraph with reactions as nodes and edge weights proportional to the mass transfer between reactions, and then train binary classifiers on the connectivity of graph nodes. We demonstrate the efficacy of this approach using the most complete metabolic model of Escherichia coli, achieving near state-of-the art prediction accuracy for essential genes. Our approach suggests that wild-type FBA solutions contain enough information to predict essentiality, without the need to assume optimality of deletion strains.