Predicting uncertainty in numerical weather forecasts

International Geophysics Elsevier 83 (2002) 3-13

The economic value of ensemble forecasts as a tool for risk assessment: From days to decades

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 128:581 (2002) 747-774

On the structure and variability of atmospheric circulation regimes in coupled climate models

Atmospheric Science Letters 2:1-4 (2001)

Authors:

A Weisheimer, D Handorf, K Dethloff

Abstract:

In order to investigate whether climate models of different complexity have the potential to simulate natural atmospheric circulation regimes, 1000-year-long integrations with constant external forcing have been analysed. Significant non-Gaussian uni-, bi-, and trimodal probability density functions have been found in 100-year segments. © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society.

A possible mechanism for in situ forcing of planetary waves in the summer extratropical mesosphere

Geophysical Research Letters 28:7 (2001) 1183-1186

Authors:

SM Osprey, BN Lawrence

Abstract:

An examination of zonal asymmetries in meridional momentum flux reaching the mesosphere is made using the Hines Doppler spread parameterization of gravity waves. As expected a general correspondence is seen between wave one wind in the stratosphere and wave one signals in gravity wave momentum flux leaving the stratosphere. However, a significant difference is the presence of wave one features in the gravity-wave momentum flux at 56 km and ∼70°N during mid-summer which contrast with minimal signals in stratospheric wave one wind. The prominence of this feature is accounted for by a significant wave one Brunt-Väisälä feature at the tropopause amplifying a wave one signal in momentum flux which can then propagate to great heights. Such a feature could result in mesospheric planetary waves which are coupled to the tropopause forcing without intervening planetary wave signals in the stratosphere.

A nonlinear dynamical perspective on model error: A proposal for non-local stochastic-dynamic parametrization in weather and climate pres-diction models

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Wiley 127:572 (2001) 279-304