Predictability of weather and climate: publications

Surface impacts of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics European Geosciences Union

Authors:

Lesley J Gray, James A Anstey, Yoshio Kawatani, Hua Lu, Scott Osprey, Verena Schenzinger

Abstract:

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Teleconnections between the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the Northern Hemisphere zonally-averaged zonal winds, mean sea level pressure (mslp) and tropical precipitation are explored using regression analysis. A novel technique is introduced to separate responses associated with the stratospheric polar vortex from other underlying mechanisms. A previously reported mslp response in January, with a pattern that resembles the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) under QBO westerly conditions, is confirmed and found to be primarily associated with a QBO modulation of the stratospheric polar vortex. This mid-winter response is relatively insensitive to the exact height of the maximum QBO westerlies and a maximum response occurs with westerlies over a relatively deep range between 10&#8211;70&#8201;hPa. Two additional mslp responses are reported, in early winter (December) and late winter (February/March). In contrast to the January response the early and late winter responses show maximum sensitivity to the QBO winds at ~&#8201;20&#8201;hPa and ~&#8201;70&#8201;hPa but are relatively insensitive to the QBO winds in between (~&#8201;50&#8201;hPa). The late winter response is centred over the North Pacific and is associated with QBO influence from the lowermost stratosphere at tropical/subtropical latitudes. The early winter response consists of anomalies over both the North Pacific and Europe, but the mechanism is unclear and requires further investigation. QBO anomalies are found in tropical precipitation amounts and a southward shift of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone under westerly QBO conditions is also evident.</p>

Surface-to-space atmospheric waves from Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption

Authors:

Corwin Wright, Neil Hindley, M Joan Alexander, Mathew Barlow, Lars Hoffmann, Cathryn Mitchell, Fred Prata, Marie Bouillon, Justin Carstens, Cathy Clerbaux, Scott Osprey, Nick Powell, Cora Randall, Jia Yue

The 2019/2020 QBO Disruption in ADM-Aeolus Wind Lidar Observations

Copernicus Publications

Authors:

Timothy Banyard, Corwin Wright, Neil Hindley, Gemma Halloran, Scott Osprey

The HadGEM2-ES implementation of CMIP5 centennial simulations

Authors:

CD Jones, JK Hughes, N Bellouin, SC Hardiman, GS Jones, J Knight, S Liddicoat, FM O'Connor, RJ Andres, C Bell, K-O Boo, A Bozzo, N Butchart, P Cadule, KD Corbin, M Doutriaux-Boucher, P Friedlingstein, J Gornall, L Gray, PR Halloran, G Hurtt, W Ingram, J-F Lamarque, RM Law, M Meinshausen, S Osprey, EJ Palin, L Parsons Chini, T Raddatz, M Sanderson, AA Sellar, A Schurer, P Valdes, N Wood, S Woodward, M Yoshioka, M Zerroukat

The representation of surface temperature trends in C3S seasonal forecast systems

Atmospheric Science Letters Wiley Open Access

Authors:

Matthew Patterson, John Slattery, Daniel Befort, Julia Lockwood, Antje Weisheimer

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