Predictability of weather and climate

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QBO changes in CMIP6 climate projections

Geophysical Research Letters American Geophysical Union (AGU) (2020)

Authors:

Neal Butchart, Yoshio Kawatani, James A Anstey, Scott M Osprey, Jadwiga H Richter, Tongwen Wu

Anthropogenic influence on the 2018 summer warm spell in Europe: the impact of different spatio-temporal scales

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society American Meteorological Society 101:S1 (2020) S41-S46

Authors:

Nicholas Leach, S Li, S Sparrow, GJ Van Oldenborgh, FC Lott, A Weisheimer, Allen

Abstract:

We demonstrate that, in attribution studies, events defined over longer time scales generally produce higher probability ratios due to lower interannual variability, reconciling seemingly inconsistent attribution results of Europe鈥檚 2018 summer heatwaves in reported studies.

Evaluation of the Quasi鈥怋iennial Oscillation in global climate models for the SPARC QBO鈥恑nitiative

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Wiley (2020) qj.3765

Authors:

AC Bushell, JA Anstey, N Butchart, Y Kawatani, SM Osprey, JH Richter, F Serva, P Braesicke, C Cagnazzo, C鈥怌 Chen, H鈥怸 Chun, RR Garcia, LJ Gray, K Hamilton, T Kerzenmacher, Y鈥怘 Kim, F Lott, C McLandress, H Naoe, J Scinocca, AK Smith, TN Stockdale, S Versick, S Watanabe, K Yoshida, S Yukimoto

Beyond skill scores: exploring sub-seasonal forecast value through a case study of French month-ahead energy prediction

(2020)

Authors:

Joshua Dorrington, Isla Finney, Tim Palmer, Antje Weisheimer

The physics of numerical analysis: a climate modelling case study

Philosophical Transactions A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences Royal Society 378:2166 (2020) 20190058

Abstract:

The case is made for a much closer synergy between climate science, numerical analysis and computer science. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Numerical algorithms for high-performance computational science'.