Predictability of weather and climate

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Have greenhouse gases intensified the contrast between wet and dry regions?

Geophysical Research Letters American Geophysical Union (AGU) 40:17 (2013) 4783-4787

Authors:

D Polson, GC Hegerl, RP Allan, B Balan Sarojini

Lorenz, Gödel and Penrose: New perspectives on determinism and causality in fundamental physics

ArXiv 1309.2396 (2013)

Interannual variability of rainfall over the Arabian Peninsula using the IPCC AR4 Global Climate Models

International Journal of Climatology Wiley 33:10 (2013) 2328-2340

Authors:

Mansour Almazroui, M Adnan Abid, H Athar, M Nazrul Islam, M Azhar Ehsan

Report on the 3rd SPARC DynVar Workshop on Modelling the Dynamics and Variability of the Stratosphere-Troposphere System

(2013) 41

Authors:

E Manzini, A Charlton-Perez, E Gerber, T Birner, A Butler, S Hardiman, A Karpechko, F Lott, A Maycock, SM Osprey, O Tripathi, T Shaw, M Sigmond

Estimation of the local response to a forcing in a high dimensional system using the fluctuation-dissipation theorem

Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 20:2 (2013) 239-248

Authors:

FC Cooper, JG Esler, PH Haynes

Abstract:

The fluctuation-dissipation theorem (FDT) has been proposed as a method of calculating the response of the earth's atmosphere to a forcing. For this problem the high dimensionality of the relevant data sets makes truncation necessary. Here we propose a method of truncation based upon the assumption that the response to a localised forcing is spatially localised, as an alternative to the standard method of choosing a number of the leading empirical orthogonal functions. For systems where this assumption holds, the response to any sufficiently small non-localised forcing may be estimated using a set of truncations that are chosen algorithmically. We test our algorithm using 36 and 72 variable versions of a stochastic Lorenz 95 system of ordinary differential equations. We find that, for long integrations, the bias in the response estimated by the FDT is reduced from ∼75% of the true response to ∼30%. © 2013 Author(s).